Kalshi's Los Angeles market settles on the daily high at LAX (KLAX), not downtown Los Angeles, as the climate report CLILAX and The Weather Company publish it. Series KXHIGHLAX, listed since Jan 5, 2025.
Updated Nov 1, 4:20 AM PST: newest final official high is for Sat, Oct 31.
Los Angeles International Airport
Not downtown Los Angeles.
1:00 AM Nov 1 to 12:00 AM Nov 2 PDT
Midnight to midnight PST, local standard time: 1:00 AM to 12:00 AM on Los Angeles's clock while daylight saving is on.
Today's six brackets, in whole degrees
Since Aug 14, 2026, 24 of 78 days (31%) settled on a tail bracket: 5 below the bottom bracket and 19 above the top one. In the last 30 days: 12 of 30.
| Day | Settled on | Winning bracket | Time of high (LST) | Settled at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 31 | 72° | 71° or abovetop tail | 12:47 PM | Nov 1, 7:10 AM PST |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 72° | 71° to 72° | 1:41 PM | Oct 31, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 29 | 73° | 72° to 73° | 12:52 PM | Oct 30, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 75° | 75° to 76° | 1:11 PM | Oct 29, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 75° | 74° to 75° | 1:32 PM | Oct 28, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 77° | 77° to 78° | 12:34 PM | Oct 27, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 78° | 78° to 79° | 10:45 AM | Oct 26, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 76° | 75° to 76° | 1:20 PM | Oct 25, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 72° | 71° to 72° | 2:48 PM | Oct 24, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 74° | 73° to 74° | 9:51 AM | Oct 22, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 82° | 75° or abovetop tail | 1:35 PM | Oct 21, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 19 | 80° | 79° or abovetop tail | 10:01 AM | Oct 20, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 87° | 86° or abovetop tail | 11:32 AM | Oct 19, 7:08 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 90° | 90° to 91° | — | Oct 18, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 99° | 95° or abovetop tail | 2:23 PM | Oct 17, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 88° | 87° to 88° | 11:45 AM | Oct 16, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 81° | 80° or abovetop tail | 12:08 PM | Oct 15, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 73° | 72° to 73° | 12:27 PM | Oct 14, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 69° | 68° to 69° | 2:03 PM | Oct 13, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 74° | 74° to 75° | 12:02 AM | Oct 12, 7:08 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 10 | 79° | 76° or abovetop tail | 10:31 AM | Oct 11, 7:09 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 77° | 78° or belowbottom tail | 1:57 PM | Oct 10, 7:19 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 80° | 82° or belowbottom tail | 11:44 AM | Oct 9, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 86° | 85° to 86° | 10:05 AM | Oct 8, 7:10 AM PDT |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 94° | 94° to 95° | 9:58 AM | Oct 7, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 101° | 101° to 102° | 10:53 AM | Oct 6, 7:12 AM PDT |
| Sun, Oct 4 | 102° | 99° or abovetop tail | 12:33 PM | Oct 5, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Sat, Oct 3 | 102° | 99° or abovetop tail | 11:29 AM | Oct 4, 7:11 AM PDT |
| Fri, Oct 2 | 87° | 87° to 88° | 12:22 PM | Oct 3, 7:21 AM PDT |
| Thu, Oct 1 | 76° | 78° or belowbottom tail | 2:10 PM | Oct 2, 7:21 AM PDT |
Source: Each market's result, settlement value and time: Kalshi's public market data; Time of the high: NWS climate reports for KLAX, via IEM
Over 363 days (Nov 1, 2025 to Oct 31, 2026), the median time of the official high was 1:05 PM local standard time, and half the highs came between 11:53 AM and 2:17 PM. Over the last 59 days the median was 12:34 PM.
LAX's high came before 1 AM standard time (1 to 2 AM daylight time) on 2 of 363 days (1%): the climate day's warmest minutes were its first.
KLAX report times, standard time. 2 without a time (MM) left out.
Source: NWS climate reports for KLAX, via IEM; IEM table of NWS climate reports
Kalshi's Los Angeles market settles on LAX (KLAX) and nothing else. Downtown Los Angeles (KFHM) publishes its own climate report, with its own daily high, which doesn't count.
Downtown Los Angeles (KFHM) against LAX, 20 km apart
Over 360 days (Oct 21, 2025 to Oct 20, 2026), the two official highs were the same whole degree on 12 of 360 days (3%). Downtown Los Angeles was warmer on 330 and cooler on 18, +6.0°F on average, and 2°F or more apart (a bracket's width) on 317.
Widest gaps: Nov 10, 2025, KFHM 92° and KLAX 70°; Dec 17, 2025, KFHM 68° and KLAX 74°.
Source: NWS climate reports for KFHM (CLIFHM), via IEM; NWS climate reports for KLAX, via IEM
Polymarket's Los Angeles market settles on the same station, Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), but reads it its own way: the highest of the day's hourly readings in whole °F, over the local calendar day, in 2°F ranges.
Kalshi vs Polymarket in Los Angeles: the stations and the last 30 days side by side
On 178 days from May 1, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026, the NWS's afternoon preliminary report (usually "as of 5 PM" local time) had the same high as the final report on 176 of 178 days (99%). The final report came in higher on 2 and never lower.
1 of those 2 higher finals put the high after the 5 PM cutoff.
On 1 daythe NWS sent a second final report with a different high. Kalshi's contract terms use the first one: Oct 22: 72°, then 71°.
Source: Every NWS climate report issued for KLAX (CLILAX), via IEM's text archive
The normal high for Nov 1 is 74°F and the record high is 101°F. The normal falls to 68°F by Dec 1.
365 final highs at KLAX, Nov 1, 2025 to Oct 31, 2026, against the normal and record each report printed.
Source: NWS climate reports for KLAX, via IEM; NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals
Climate-report stations near LAX, and how their official highs ran against it. None settles the Los Angeles market.
Other reporting stations within 25 km (METARs only, no climate report): Hawthorne Muni (KHHR, 5 km), Santa Monica Muni (KSMO, 11 km), Torrance Muni (KTOA, 16 km).
Straight-line distances from KLAX; snapshot Oct 21, 2026.
Source: IEM's list of NWS climate-report sites; aviationweather.gov station information
Los Angeles International Airport (KLAX), the station named by the climate-report code CLILAX in the market's rules. Not downtown Los Angeles.
Midnight to midnight PST, local standard time. During daylight saving that is 1:00 AM Nov 1 to 12:00 AM Nov 2 PDT.
Trading closes at 1:00 AM PST after the day ends. Over the last 78 settled days the result posted a median of 6.2 hours after close.
62° or below, 63° to 64°, 65° to 66°, 67° to 68°, 69° to 70°, 71° or above, compared with LAX's published whole-degree high. The two tails are strict.
On 24 of 78 settled days from Aug 14, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026 (31%): 5 on the bottom tail and 19 on the top tail.
Over 363 days to Oct 31, 2026, the median time of the official high at KLAX was 1:05 PM local standard time. On 2 of those days it came before 1 AM standard time.
From May 1, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026, the afternoon preliminary report's high matched the final report's on 176 of 178 days. The final was higher on 2 and lower on 0.
No. Only LAX (KLAX) does. Over 360 days to Oct 20, 2026, KFHM's official high was the same whole degree as KLAX's on 12 days and 2°F or more apart on 317.
The rules every city shares · Reading CLILAX · The Aug 14, 2026 change
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