Both markets settle on Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS), but they count the high differently.
Austin-Bergstrom (KAUS)
The day's official high, 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time.
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS)
The highest hourly reading on NOAA's page for the station, in whole degrees, on the local calendar day.
Highest hourly reading so far at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS): 84°F at 1:53 PM. The line is each hourly report, the reports Polymarket's rules count; the stripes are its ranges.
Austin so far today: the high is 84°F (1:53 PM), in the 84° to 85° bracket. The favorite is 84° to 85° at >99¢ (Polymarket, 30 minutes late). The day ends at 12:00 AM CST. 23 reports from KAUS from 12:00 AM to 10:22 PM CST, between 60°F and 84°F; the latest 68°F at 9:53 PM.
| Bracket | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 94° or above | <1¢ | |
| 92° to 93° | <1¢ | |
| 90° to 91° | <1¢ | |
| 88° to 89° | <1¢ | |
| 86° to 87° | <1¢ | |
| 84° to 85° | >99¢ | favorite, high so far |
| 82° to 83° | <1¢ | |
| 80° to 81° | <1¢ | |
| 78° to 79° | <1¢ | |
| 76° to 77° | <1¢ | |
| 75° or below | <1¢ |
| Time | Reading |
|---|---|
| 9:53 PM | 68°F |
| 8:53 PM | 69°F |
| 7:53 PM | 70°F |
| 6:53 PM | 74°F |
| 5:53 PM | 77°F |
| 4:53 PM | 83°F |
| 3:53 PM | 84°F |
| 2:53 PM | 84°F |
| 1:53 PM | 84°F |
| 12:53 PM | 82°F |
| 11:53 AM | 81°F |
| 10:53 AM | 79°F |
| 9:53 AM | 75°F |
| 8:53 AM | 70°F |
| 7:53 AM | 65°F |
| 6:53 AM | 60°F |
| 5:53 AM | 60°F |
| 4:53 AM | 61°F |
| 3:53 AM | 62°F |
| 2:53 AM | 62°F |
| 1:53 AM | 62°F |
| 1:53 AM | 63°F |
| 12:53 AM | 65°F |
| Range | Price (30 min late) | Traded |
|---|---|---|
| 94° or above | <1¢ | 525 |
| 92°–93° | <1¢ | 350 |
| 90°–91° | <1¢ | 175 |
| 88°–89° | <1¢ | 2,133 |
| 86°–87° | <1¢ | 6,527 |
| 84°–85°high so far | >99¢ | 7,594 |
| 82°–83° | <1¢ | 9,910 |
| 80°–81° | <1¢ | 4,545 |
| 78°–79° | <1¢ | 2,570 |
| 76°–77° | <1¢ | 669 |
| 75° or below | <1¢ | 628 |
Almanac's °F is each report's tenths of a degree Celsius, rounded. Polymarket settles on NOAA's page for the station, which lists the same reports. Today's market on Polymarket.
Which range will Austin settle on today? For fun: no money, no orders, nothing sent to Polymarket. It counts on the weekly leaderboard: a right call scores 100 minus its price when you called it.
Create a free account to make your call.
Polymarket's winning range held the high Kalshi settled on for 17 of 30 days; it cooler on 13.
Source: Kalshi's settlements: Kalshi's public market data; Polymarket's results: each daily event
| Rule | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| What counts as the high | The day's official high for the station, as The Weather Company publishes it for Kalshi (weather.com/kalshi) for events from Aug 14, 2026. It has matched the NWS climate report's official high on 1,587 of 1,588 settled days, and that high counts a peak between hourly reports. | The highest reading in the "Temp" column of NOAA's time-series page for the station, using its hourly data, in whole degrees. A peak between two readings isn't in that column, so it can come out lower than the official high. |
| The day | Midnight to midnight local standard time, so 1 AM to 1 AM while clocks are on daylight time. | Every time listed on that day on NOAA's page, which shows the station's local clock time. |
| The ranges | Two-degree brackets, with an open bracket at each end. Where the brackets start moves from day to day (61°–62° one day, 62°–63° another). | Two-degree ranges that start on an even number (62°–63°), with an open range at each end. |
| When it settles | After the final report for the day is out, usually the next morning. | Once the first reading of the next day is on NOAA's page, or by 11:59 PM Eastern the next day. If NOAA has no data by then, the Weather Underground daily observations table is used. |
Source: Polymarket's market rules (read Thu, Oct 22); Kalshi contract terms; The Weather Company's Kalshi data
All 11 cities, Kalshi vs Polymarket
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