The scoreboard for weather markets
Kalshi and Polymarket show the price.Almanac shows the score.
The thermometer that settles each city, live. No picks. Free to start.
Founding price: $79 a year for as long as you stay. Ends Mon Nov 30 or at 200 seats. See the offer
Right now in New York City
- Station readings
- High so far
- Brackets, brighter = pricier (Kalshi, 30 min late)
New York City so far today: the high is 59°F (the station's 6-hour high, 6:51 PM), in the 59° or below bracket. The favorite is 59° or below at 99¢ (Kalshi, 30 minutes late). Trading closes at 1:00 AM EST. 23 reports from KNYC from 1:00 AM to 9:27 PM EST, between 45°F and 58°F; the latest 53°F at 8:51 PM.
Readings from aviationweather.gov; Kalshi prices 30 minutes late. Trading closes in 3 h 33 min. Today in New York City · How it settles · Yesterday's results
How Kalshi's weather markets work
Thirty seconds, no jargon.
- 01
Pick a city
Every day Kalshi and Polymarket each ask, city by city: how hot will it get? Kalshi's answers are six brackets, like 64° to 65°; Polymarket's are ranges of 2°F, or 1°C in its world cities.
- 02
Each answer pays $1 if the high lands in it
The price, like 63¢, is what one contract or share costs right now. A higher price means traders think that answer is more likely.
- 03
Watch the thermometer
One weather station decides each city, and the two exchanges don't always pick the same one: Central Park for Kalshi's New York, LaGuardia for Polymarket's. Almanac shows both stations' readings live all day, and how every city settled.
More markets, same idea
The number each market settles on, live, beside its prices: weather and gas, on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Daily highsHow hot each city gets today, live from the thermometer the market goes by.24 cities · Kalshi + Polymarket
- Daily lowsHow cold each city has got, and how far the low still has to fall.24 cities · Kalshi + Polymarket
- Will it rain today?Rain so far at every station, beside the price of rain and of dry.35 cities · Kalshi
- Rain this monthHow much rain each city's month adds up to, beside every range's price.5 cities · Polymarket
- Hourly temperatureKalshi's own index, minute by minute, beside the next hour's steps.4 cities, every hour · Kalshi
- Gas pricesAAA's average this morning, how it moved, and where tomorrow's market sits.US + 50 states · Kalshi
- World citiesToday's high from London to Tokyo, the way Polymarket's rules count it.39 cities · Polymarket
- Kalshi vs PolymarketThe same city's high, settled two ways: stations, rules and the last 30 days side by side.11 cities · Kalshi + Polymarket
Yesterday's highs, all 24 cities
The official high in each city, from the weather service's daily report.
- Atlanta72°+3° vs normal
- Austin80°+3° vs normal
- Boston55°-2° vs normal
- Chicago63°+7° vs normal
- Dallas77°+5° vs normal
- Denver58°-1° vs normal
- Houston85°+8° vs normal
- Las Vegas69°-6° vs normal
- Los Angeles72°-2° vs normal
- Louisville70°+6° vs normal
- Miami85°+1° vs normal
- Minneapolis59°+9° vs normal
- New Orleans79°+3° vs normal
- New York City58°-1° vs normal
- Newark61°0° vs normal
- Oklahoma City64°-3° vs normal
- Philadelphia61°-1° vs normal
- Phoenix79°-4° vs normal
- San Antonio80°+3° vs normal
- San Diego74°+1° vs normal
- San Francisco65°-4° vs normal
- Seattle54°-2° vs normal
- Trenton59°-1° vs normal
- Washington DC64°0° vs normal
Start free, go live when it's useful
- 1
Look around free
Every city page, yesterday's results and the fee calculator, with no account.
- 2
Follow three cities free
A free account keeps three cities on a watchlist with the live high so far, the countdowns, prices 30 minutes late and Make your call, a daily guess for fun.
- 3
Go live when it's useful
Weather Basic is every city live, an alert the moment a station hits your number and a plain-English briefing each morning: $100 a year or $10 a month, with the first 7 days free. Weather Pro adds Ask Almanac for $20 a month.
Information and tools, never picks
- It never says what to buy or sell, and never places an order.
- It doesn't connect to your Kalshi or Polymarket account.
- It doesn't claim its weather model is better than the market. Its own test found the market's prices were more accurate, and it says so next to every model number.
How good is the model?
Not as good as the market. In a 60-day test across all 24 cities, the market's own prices were more accurate than Almanac's weather model, both a day ahead and on the day. That's why Almanac shows facts, not picks.
Plans
The rules pages and the fee calculator are free with no account, and a free account follows three cities.
Founding members
$79 a year, for as long as you stay
The first 200 yearly members of Weather Basic pay $79 a year instead of $100, and keep that price while they stay.
Ends Mon Nov 30, 11:59 PM Eastern, or at 200 seats, whichever comes first.
Claim a founding seatFree
Every city page with prices 30 minutes late, and a free account that keeps three cities on a watchlist.
$0
Weather Basic
Every city, live. An alert the moment a station hits your number. A plain-English briefing each morning.
$100 a year2 months freeor $10 a month
Start 7 days free7 days free for new subscribers. Cancel before it ends and you pay nothing.
Weather Pro
Everything in Weather Basic, plus Ask Almanac: ask about the rules, the stations and the history, and get answers from Almanac's own numbers. Up to 30 questions a day.
$200 a year2 months freeor $20 a month
Start 7 days free7 days free for new subscribers. Cancel before it ends and you pay nothing.
Questions
What are Kalshi's and Polymarket's weather markets?
Does Almanac tell me what to buy?
Where do the numbers come from?
How good is Almanac's weather model?
What does it cost?
Why does Kalshi's day run from 1 AM to 1 AM?
Start with yesterday's results. They're free.
See how every city settled, read the rules in plain words and try the fee calculator, all with no account. Follow three cities free when you want a watchlist.